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The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying policy steps caused economic disturbance so stark that advanced analytical techniques were unnecessary for lots of questions. For example, unemployment jumped greatly in the early weeks of the pandemic, leaving little room for alternative explanations. The effects of AI, nevertheless, may be less like COVID and more like the web or trade with China.
One typical technique is to compare results between more or less AI-exposed employees, companies, or markets, in order to isolate the impact of AI from confounding forces. 2 Exposure is typically specified at the task level: AI can grade homework however not handle a classroom, for example, so instructors are considered less exposed than workers whose whole job can be performed from another location.
3 Our approach integrates information from three sources. The O * web database, which identifies jobs related to around 800 unique occupations in the US.Our own use data (as measured in the Anthropic Economic Index). Task-level direct exposure price quotes from Eloundou et al. (2023 ), which determine whether it is theoretically possible for an LLM to make a task at least two times as quick.
4Why might real usage fall short of theoretical ability? Some jobs that are in theory possible may disappoint up in usage due to the fact that of design limitations. Others may be sluggish to diffuse due to legal constraints, specific software application requirements, human confirmation steps, or other hurdles. For example, Eloundou et al. mark "License drug refills and supply prescription info to pharmacies" as completely exposed (=1).
As Figure 1 programs, 97% of the jobs observed throughout the previous four Economic Index reports fall into classifications ranked as theoretically possible by Eloundou et al. (=0.5 or =1.0). This figure shows Claude usage distributed throughout O * internet tasks organized by their theoretical AI direct exposure. Tasks ranked =1 (fully possible for an LLM alone) represent 68% of observed Claude use, while jobs ranked =0 (not possible) account for just 3%.
Our brand-new measure, observed exposure, is implied to quantify: of those jobs that LLMs could in theory accelerate, which are actually seeing automated usage in expert settings? Theoretical ability incorporates a much wider series of tasks. By tracking how that space narrows, observed exposure offers insight into financial modifications as they emerge.
A job's exposure is higher if: Its jobs are in theory possible with AIIts tasks see substantial usage in the Anthropic Economic Index5Its jobs are performed in job-related contextsIt has a relatively greater share of automated use patterns or API implementationIts AI-impacted tasks comprise a larger share of the general role6We give mathematical details in the Appendix.
We then adjust for how the task is being performed: fully automated executions receive full weight, while augmentative usage receives half weight. The task-level protection steps are averaged to the profession level weighted by the portion of time invested on each job. Figure 2 reveals observed direct exposure (in red) compared to from Eloundou et al.
We determine this by first balancing to the occupation level weighting by our time portion procedure, then averaging to the profession category weighting by total employment. The step reveals scope for LLM penetration in the majority of jobs in Computer system & Math (94%) and Office & Admin (90%) occupations.
Claude presently covers just 33% of all tasks in the Computer & Math category. There is a large exposed location too; many jobs, of course, remain beyond AI's reachfrom physical farming work like pruning trees and operating farm machinery to legal tasks like representing customers in court.
In line with other information revealing that Claude is extensively utilized for coding, Computer system Programmers are at the top, with 75% coverage, followed by Client service Agents, whose main tasks we significantly see in first-party API traffic. Data Entry Keyers, whose main task of checking out source documents and going into information sees substantial automation, are 67% covered.
At the bottom end, 30% of employees have zero coverage, as their tasks appeared too occasionally in our information to satisfy the minimum threshold. This group includes, for instance, Cooks, Motorbike Mechanics, Lifeguards, Bartenders, Dishwashers, and Dressing Space Attendants. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes routine work forecasts, with the latest set, published in 2025, covering forecasted changes in work for each occupation from 2024 to 2034.
A regression at the occupation level weighted by current employment discovers that development forecasts are somewhat weaker for jobs with more observed direct exposure. For every 10 portion point increase in coverage, the BLS's development projection stop by 0.6 portion points. This provides some validation in that our steps track the independently derived estimates from labor market experts, although the relationship is slight.
Key Findings From the Strategic Report on 2026Each solid dot reveals the typical observed direct exposure and predicted employment change for one of the bins. The rushed line shows an easy direct regression fit, weighted by existing work levels. Figure 5 shows qualities of employees in the leading quartile of exposure and the 30% of employees with absolutely no exposure in the three months before ChatGPT was launched, August to October 2022, utilizing data from the Present Population Survey.
The more bare group is 16 percentage points most likely to be female, 11 percentage points most likely to be white, and nearly twice as most likely to be Asian. They make 47% more, typically, and have greater levels of education. For example, people with academic degrees are 4.5% of the unexposed group, however 17.4% of the most bare group, a practically fourfold difference.
Brynjolfsson et al.
Key Findings From the Strategic Report on 2026( 2022) and Hampole et al. (2025) use job posting task publishing Burning Glass (now Lightcast) and Revelio, respectively. We focus on joblessness as our priority outcome due to the fact that it most directly records the potential for economic harma worker who is unemployed desires a job and has not yet discovered one. In this case, task postings and work do not always indicate the requirement for policy reactions; a decline in job postings for a highly exposed function might be counteracted by increased openings in a related one.
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